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AFTER the sanctions imposed on Iran by the UN and the US, the European Union (EU) has also come out with a similar measure to force Tehran to abandon its controversial nuclear program. Now Iran will have no buyers for its oil in the West. This is likely to not only reduce Iran’s oil revenues but also raise the international price of this precious resource. Iran, however, remains as defiant as ever. The Iranian Oil Ministry, pooh-poohing the sanctions regime, has asserted that it can find new buyers for Iranian oil elsewhere in the world — which means China and Russia. Iran may also offer to supply more oil to India. But it is not as easy as it appears. There are payments problems which will be difficult to sort out. The US and the EU obviously will not keep quiet and may try to put pressure on any country showing interest in Iranian oil to ignore Tehran’s offer. Saudi Arabia has announced that it will increase its oil production when the unavailability of Iranian oil leads to its shortage.
The crisis brewing in the Persian Gulf region is not limited to Iranian oil supplies. As a retaliatory measure, Iran appears determined to choke the Strait of Hormuz, used by most oil tankers of the world to reach their destination. And with the US, Britain and France ready with their warships in the Persian Gulf to prevent Iran from undertaking this dangerous course, a fresh war in that region cannot be ruled out. This may aggravate the global economic crisis, but the course of events seems unalterable.
Israel is also ready to add fuel to the fire. It is reportedly ready with a plan to strike at the Iranian nuclear plants without giving a hint to even the US, its sustainer for all seasons. No one knows better than the Israelis that the US, being in the grip of election fever, cannot dare to prevent Tel Aviv from carrying out its nuclear-cleansing operation in Iran. This is not a happy scenario with most countries in West Asia already being in turmoil.
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